Blueprint for NFL's Pretenders to Become Super Bowl Contenders in 2024 Offseason (2024)

Every offseason, there are essentially three types of teams in the NFL.

There are the contenders who are just looking to fill a need or two before taking another run at the Super Bowl. There are the rebuilders who have more holes to patch than can reasonably be done in one offseason. And then there are the teams in-between. Not legitimate contenders—at least not yet. But not tomato cans, either.

They are the pretenders—the teams with aspirations of a deep playoff run who have a glaring weakness or two that prevents them from consideration as a Super Bowl contender.

For those teams, the overriding goal of the offseason is addressing those weaknesses and shedding that "pretender" status.

And if the teams in this column (all of whom won at least seven games in 2023 but missed the playoffs) want to accomplish that this spring, this is what they need to do on each side of the ball.

OFFENSE: Upgrade at Quarterback

This first one is obvious—but it could also be the hardestone to pull off.

Last year, the Falcons were 22nd in the league in passing, averaging just 207.3 yards per game. It has become obvious that Desmond Ridder isn't the long-term answer under center, and Taylor Henicke is who he is—a capable backup quarterback.

The Falcons have been heavily linked to Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears, and Fields told the St. Brown Bros Podcast that he thinks he could do some damage with Atlanta's offensive weaponry.

"Atlanta would be tough," he said. "I think they got a lot of playmakers on the team. Bijan, my boy Kyle [Pitts], and of course Drake [London]. They probably need one more receiver, but they got some guys."

Whether it's Fields or someone else, Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot has to improve the team's quarterback for Atlanta to have a shot at winning the NFC South.

DEFENSE: Add Pass-Rush Help

The good news is that the Atlanta Falcons doubled their sacktotal last year relative to 2022. The bad news is that when you consider thatthe Falcons only had 21 sacks as a team two years ago, some of the shine comesoff that stat.

No one on Atlanta's roster had even seven sacks last season. The team's co-leader in sacks was 37-year-old defensive lineman Calais Campbell. Both he and edge-rusher Bud Dupree (who tied Campbell with 6.5 sacks) are free agents in 2024.

With just over $33 million in cap space, the Falcons havethe cash to take a run at an upgrade on the edge. 2023 SEC Defensive Player ofthe Year Dallas Turner could also be in play with the eighth overall pick—especiallyif the Falcons add a veteran quarterback.

OFFENSE: Get Better Running the Ball

Calling a team that made it at least as far as the AFC Championship Game two of the past three years a "pretender" may be pushing it. But the Bengals did miss the playoffs last season. Getting a healthy Joe Burrow back under center will certainly help. The team is also applying the franchise tag to wide receiver Tee Higgins.

That tag isn't cheap, but the Bengals are still sitting on over $50 million in cap space—and a chunk of that needs to be applied to improving the league's 29th-ranked run game from a season ago.

The Bengals have invested heavily in the offensive line inrecent years, but Dalton Miller of Pro Football Network still ranked the unitoutside the top-20 last year, and right tackle Jonah Williams is a free agent.

The team also has the cap space to pursue an upgrade at running back—Joe Mixon hasn't topped 4.1 yards per carry since all the way back in 2018.

DEFENSE: Bolster the Interior of the Defensive Front

The Bengals have a pair of quality edge-rushers in TreyHendrickson and Sam Hubbard. And the Bengals were seventh in the league in rundefense last year. But with D.J. Reader set to hit free agency, the defensivetackle spots could be a question mark for the team.

This year's free agent class at defensive tackle could be a deep one—Leonard Williams of the Seattle Seahawks, Chris Jones of the Kansas City Chiefs, Christian Wilkins of the Miami Dolphins and Justin Madubuike of the Baltimore Ravens are all slated to hit the open market.

Not all of them will, but the Bengals could use a tackle who is better at collapsing the pocket. Cincinnati's 30 sacks a year ago were the fourth-fewest in the NFL, and Hendrickson had over half of them.

OFFENSE: Mend Fences with Russell Wilson

OK, this one's all but certainly not going to happen. For weeks the signs have all pointed to the Broncos either trading or releasing Wilson after he was benched for the final two games of last season—despite a staggering $85 million dead cap hit.

Have Wilson's two seasons in Denver been especially impressive? No. But landing an upgrade over Wilson will be easier said than done—even with the salary cap increasing more than was originally expected.

At this point, with egos bruised and Wilson's Denver mansion up for sale, the ship has probably sailed. Wilson will be let go, and the Broncos will be left at a financial disadvantage relative to the other teams in the AFC West for at least a couple of years.

The smart play for player and team would be mended fences and a restructured contract. But NFL teams don't always do smart things—and Denver's "Pretender" status is going to wind up locked in for 2024 and 2025.

DEFENSE: Address the Safety Position

The Broncos were a mess defensively much of the 2023 season, finishing the year 29th in total defense. Denver needs help at all three levels of the defense, but the safety position is potentially the most pressing.

Justin Simmons is an excellent player and one of the NFL's biggest ball-hawks the past several seasons, but he carries a cap hit north of $18 million in 2024—a big number for a team already staring at the Wilson hit. Four-year veteran P.J. Locke is an average talent about to hit free agency.

This year's safety class (headlined by Antoine Winfield Jr. of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) is as deep as any in recent years, but at the risk of being repetitive Denver's cap situation if Wilson is shown the door is going to make adding any "name" free agents problematic.

Still, the last thing Denver can afford this season is a defensive backslide--or even a repeat of 2023.

OFFENSE: Retain Wide Receiver Michael Pittman Jr.

Without question the biggest priority for the Colts in 2024 is the development of second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson. And in order to do that, the team can't afford to lose his best weapon in the passing game.

Granted, Michael Pittman isn't a game-breaking talent like Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings or Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals. But he's a sure-handed chain-mover who set career highs last year in both receptions (109) and receiving yards (1,152).

With a whopping $72.3 million in cap space (fifth-most in the league), the Colts can absolutely afford to bring Pittman back. In fact, the team could also explore upgrading the No. 2 receiver spot with a player like Marquise Brown of the Arizona Cardinals or Gabe Davis of the Buffalo Bills.

DEFENSE: Get Better Against the Run

With a defensive line that features edge-rusher Kwity Paye and tackles Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner, the Colts were among the league leaders in sacks last year with 51. But Indianapolis struggled stopping the run, allowing 123.8 yards per game—24th in the league.

Stewart is an unrestricted free agent, and despite missing six games in 2023 demand for his services will likely be robust. Zaire Franklin had a breakout year for the Colts last season, but an upgrade at linebacker opposite him isn't a bad idea. Both safety spots in Indianapolis are also a question mark.

Even $70 million will only go so far, but the Colts need to invest in becoming more physical defensively. Cornerback could also become a priority if underrated slot man Kenny Moore departs in free agency.

OFFENSE: Improve Trevor Lawrence's Protection

The dominant storyline in Jacksonville this offseason centers on Trevor Lawrence, and how the young quarterback's turnover-marred 2023 campaign potentially affects the mega-extension looming for the 24-year-old.

But a big part of the reason that Lawrence struggled last year was that he spent far too much time running for his life. Jacksonville's offensive line play was, well, offensive—some pundits ranked the Jaguars as a bottom-five O-line, and that's before considering the potential departure of left tackle Cam Robinson, who has been mentioned as a potential cap casualty.

The Jaguars aren't in terrible shape relative to the cap, possessing just under $25 million in wiggle room. Whether it's in free agency or with a player like Alabama tackle J.C. Latham at No. 17 overall, the Jags have to get better in front of Lawrence.

DEFENSE: Fortify the Secondary

The offensive line was far from Jacksonville's only problem last season. The pass defense was not good, ranking 26th in the league at 239.8 yards allowed per game. A pass rush that ranked 25th in the league in sacks didn't help matters, but the larger issue is this.

Jacksonville's cornerbacks aren't especially good.

With edge-rusher Josh Allen set to command well in excess of $20 million (whether on the franchise tag or a new contract), adding a big-name free agent corner like Jaylon Johnson of the Chicago Bears won't be easy. That's why prospects like Ennis Rakestraw Jr. of Missouri and Nate Wiggins of Clemson trendy picks among the draftnik community for the 17th pick.

How the Jaguars do it isn't especially important. But with the AFC South becoming a hotbed of young, talented quarterbacks, the Jaguars have to become markedly better against the pass to be any factor in the division in 2024.

OFFENSE: Get a Quarterback

Given that situation that Antonio Pierce inherited last year, he did an impressive job getting the team to an eight-win season and second place in the AFC West. But if the Raiders are going to be any kind of threat to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2024, the team has to get better at the game's most important position.

Aidan O'Connell wasn't terrible as a rookie. But 201.6 passing yards per game and a passer rating south of 85 isn't going to unseat Patrick Mahomes.

With over $40 million in cap space, the Raiders have the resources to take a run at free agents like Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings and Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Raiders are reportedly interested in Justin Fields, and the team has been linked in multiple mock drafts to Michigan's J.J. McCarthy.

At this point, it's not a matter of whether the Raiders will add a quarterback. It's just a matter of who that quarterback will be.

DEFENSE: Improve the Cornerback Room

The Raiders need help at just about every level of the defense. Maxx Crosby got very little help on the defensive line last season. Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo are adequate starters at linebacker but not much more.

But where the Raiders most need help defensively is at cornerback. The Marcus Peters experiment last year was an abject failure. Nate Hobbs struggled to stay healthy. Jakorian Bennett struggled to avoid getting roasted. 2023 starter Amik Robertson is a free agent.

Playing in the same division as Mahomes and Justin Herbert with arguably the weakest CB corps in the NFL Is not a winning combination. The Raiders need quality and quantity at the position—in nearly equal measure.

OFFENSE: Re-Sign Kirk Cousins

Oh, stop groaning.

After a dozen seasons, we have a pretty good idea who Kirk Cousins is. He's not Patrick Mahomes. He's not Joe Burrow. He's not Lamar Jackson. Cousins isn't great.

But what he is is good. The 35-year-old has started 145 games in Washington and Minnesota. In the latter locale, he's 13 games over .500 as a starter with 171 touchdowns against just 55 interceptions, a passer rating of 101.2 and three trips to the Pro Bowl.

Provided that his rehab from the torn Achilles that ended his 2023 season is progressing well, Cousins is the best option available for the Vikings at quarterback in 2024. The Bears aren't going to trade Justin Fields inside the NFC North.

It's simple, if the Vikings don't bring Cousins back, they are waving the white flag on the upcoming season. Stating that the window has closed and it's time to rebuild. But if they think Cousins could have another 13-win season (ala 2022) up his sleeve, then the "win now" move in to run it back one more time.

DEFENSE: Get Better Against the Pass

This has seemingly been an offseason priority in the Twin Cities for years. And to be fair, the Vikings were better against the pass last year than in 2022. But that isn't necessarily saying a lot—"better" was 24th in the league.

Now, there are a couple of ways the Vikings can improve the pass defense. The first is with an edge-rusher—Danielle Hunter was great last year, but he's a free agent heading into his age-30 season. The second is by adding a cornerback—Byron Murphy and Akayleb Evans aren't terrible starters, but they aren't keeping opposing quarterbacks awake at night, either.

The Vikings have $35.8 million in cap space, but re-upping Cousins and/or Hunter could wipe out most of that. That's likely why the mock drafts that don't have the Vikings drafting Cousins' replacement almost all have slotted either a cornerback or an edge-rusher to the team with pick No. 11.

OFFENSE: Restructure or Release Alvin Kamara

There's an annual right of passage in the Big Easy—digging out from under massive salary cap deficits every year. Re-doing Derek Carr's deal and the larger than expected salary cap in 2024 have already wiped out half of that deficit this year, but the Saints are still more than $40 million over the cap.

Something has to give.

Running back Alvin Kamara has long been a cornerstone of theSaints offense. But the 28-year-old is coming off the worst season of hiscareer in terms of scrimmage yards and carries the highest 2024 cap hit of anyrunning back in the league.

Again, something has to give.

Kamara is essentially untradeable unless the Saints wait until after June 1st—delaying compensation until 2025. That leaves two options—re-working Kamara's deal to kick some money down the road or letting him go with a post-June 1 designation and giving second-year pro Kendre Miller an expanded role this year.

Oft-injured wideout Michael Thomas is in a similar boat.

DEFENSE: Beef up the Pass Rush

Last year, the Saints managed just 34 sacks. Only four NFL teams had fewer. And frankly, looking at the roster it's hard to see where in-house improvement will come from.

Carl Granderson had something of a coming-out party with 8.5sacks last year. But behind him was linebacker Demario Davis, who is 35 andcarries a cap hit over $18 million. Edge-rusher Cameron Jordan is also 35,coming off arguably the worst season of his career and has a cap number northof $23 million.

The New Orleans pass rush needs to get younger. And cheaper. And more effective. In a hurry. And given the team's lack of cap space, the team could look to address that with the 14th overall pick and a player like Florida State edge-rusher Jared Verse.

How it gets done isn't as important as getting it done. But if the Saints can't get to opposing quarterbacks with more regularity in 2024, this year won't be a bit different than the last.

OFFENSE: Help Keep Aaron Rodgers Upright

An argument can be made that wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson is the most pressing need for the new-look Jets. But after Year 1 of the Aaron Rodgers era lasted one series, it's evident to this analyst that offensive success in New York relies on one primary goal.

The Jets have to protect Rodgers—and last year, Gang Green's line was among the worst in the National Football League.

Unfortunately for the Jets, the team doesn't have a ton of cap space—just under $13 million. And even marginally competent offensive linemen can get big contracts in free agency.

Given that reality, most mock drafts have the Jets looking to add a tackle at No. 10 overall, whether it's Olu Fashanu of Penn State or Taliese Fuaga of Oregon State. In fact, it will be something of an upset if the Jets don't make an offensive lineman their first pick.

DEFENSE: Restructure or Move on from Linebacker C.J.Mosley

To be clear, C.J. Mosley remains an excellent NFL linebacker.Last year he paced the Jets with 152 total tackles—the third straight year hepiled up over 150 total stops. This has nothing to do with ability.

It has everything to do with age and salary.

Mosley will be 32 when the 2024 season begins. He's entering the final year of his contract. And that contract carries a cap hit of almost $21.5 million in 2024.

There's some money to sign a lineman or wideout right there.

As good as Mosley is, he's not irreplaceable. The Jets already have Quincy Williams on the roster coming off his best season. Cody Barton of the Washington Commanders and Josey Jewell of the Denver Broncos are just two examples of capable veteran replacements who would cost a fraction of what Mosley does.

The Jets can't afford a $21 million off-ball LB. Not with the offensive line such a mess.

OFFENSE: Beef up the O-Line

Among first-year head coaches, Mike MacDonald inherited apretty good situation offensively. The Seahawks have plenty of skill-positiontalent, and while quarterback Geno Smith regressed relative to 2022, he playedwell enough to merit another season as the starter.

However, the offensive line in the Emerald City is clearly the weak link—especially along the interior. With about $13 million in cap space, the Seahawks don't have the room to spend big in free agency. But picking at No. 16 could be a blessing in disguise for the Seahawks.

Offensive guards aren't generally drafted inside the top-10. That could give Seattle their pick of the crop at that spot, with Bleacher Report's Brandon Thorn singling out Troy Fautanu of Washington as a good fit.

"The Morris Trophy winner as the Pac-12 Conference's best offensive lineman has tackle length and athletic ability inside a guard's body," Thorn said, "with matching play strength. He should be able to make a similar level of impact as Brandon Scherff once did when he made a similar transition in Washington years ago."

DEFENSE: Don't Let the Front Seven Crumble

The Seahawks could be looking at a lot of upheaval on the front seven. Mid-season acquisition Leonard Williams is a free agent, and the defensive tackle could command big bucks on the open market. Both of the team's three-down starters at linebacker a year ago (Jordyn Brooks and Bobby Wagner) are also pending free agents.

That's not Seattle's only issue on the Front Seven—Boye Mafe established himself as a rising young star on the edge, but Seattle needs a reliable compliment to the 25-year-old.

Restricted free agent Darrell Taylor could be an in-houseoption on the edge, but depending on how many players leave, the Seahawks maybe looking at replacing multiple important defensive starters—without a lot ofmoney with which to do it.